This is what I hear on a daily basis:
Americans are bobbing in a pool of debt so deep that it’s tickling their earlobes.
If we don’t get a handle on the total U.S. consumer debt, we’re doomed.
Those aren’t tough messages to understand. Too much debt is bad. We have too much debt. We need to start acting like responsible adults by paying it all down. It’s time to embrace the concepts of savings and delayed gratification.
Well, maybe.
A lot of folks will say that the total U.S. consumer debt level, which is around $2.56 trillion, needs to go down. Not everyone sees it that way, though.
There’s another school of thought, and I hear from its professors on a daily basis, too.
They argue that we don’t have a debt crisis and that consumer spending is the only thing driving our economy. If we want to get out of this recession, they’ll argue, we need people to buy more stuff on credit.
There’s some support for that perspective, too. A recent article I found via the Houston Chronicle. It’s author, Erik Tyson, maintains that we don’t really have a big problem with credit and that things seem to be cruising right along just fine and dandy in that department.
“The recession has supposedly led to increases in family savings, major efforts by families to reduce debt and other belt-tightening measures, so the figures given in the Fed consumer-finance survey probably even exaggerate the extent of the current credit problem,” Vlasenko said.
In summary, Vlasenko says: “As is often the case, the reality is often less extreme and dire than we are led to believe. Sure, some families and individuals are drowning in credit card debt. And some misuse their credit cards.
“But the vast majority of Americans appear to manage their credit wisely.”
Now, it’s not so hard to get a grip on the pro-debt mode of thinking, either. We don’t have the production and manufacturing base in this country that we once did, so our spending is critical to business success. This is the same logic that’s led to things like the clunker law–encouraing people to take on debt in order to save the auto industry.
You can pick either of those perspectives and come up with at least a few decent arguments for yourself. The problem with all of this is that they don’t seem to fit together too well. You can’t simultaneously encourage thrift and debt reduction while salivating over the prospect of people spending more money.
Now that big picture stuff is a little complicated (and very mutually exclusive, it would appear), but the “on the ground” happenings are just as confusing.
Some people seem pretty happy that we’re putting a dent in the total U.S. consumer debt total. This recession has led to some belt-tightening and some serious debt reduction, you see. Apparently, we’re paying down billions and billions in consumer debt every month for the past half year.
If you’re in the “debt bad” group, that’s good news. Or is it?
You see, a lot of that debt reduction seems to be coming from write-offs and settlements. The lending banks realize they can’t squeeze green blood from the turnips suffering through this recession, so they’re taking the bad debt off the books. We’re not really paying down all of the debt. Some of the reduction is stemming from our simple inability to repay it.
That, as you’d guess, has a nasty impact on credit scores. Thus, people aren’t getting as much credit. Less credit extension means it’s harder to boost that total debt number. Maybe we’re “paying it down” only because we’re not getting more of it.
And that’s scary news if you’re part of the “we need more consumer spending” crowd. It’s hard to imagine consumers buying their way out of a recession when they can’t pay their bills and no one’s interested in giving them more access to credit. Banks are slashing credit lines.
Personally, I’m still trying to make sense of it all. At the risk of not doing my part to help the economy, however, I’m approaching my own life on the basis of what’s best for me. I love the fine folks at GM, but I’m not buying a new car. I’m sure that the people running those businesses in the shopping mall are real sweethearts and I know that they can’t employee people if we’re not in there sliding plastic so fast it melts, but I’m opting out. The Lampsen plan involves reasonable spending, working with cash, and taking care of the future.
If I’m accidentally contributing to a long-term recession, I apologize. Part of me wonders, though. If the only way out of this mess is to either bottom out or to get even messier, maybe it’s just time to bottom out.












