I consider myself a relatively bright guy.  I know things.  I went to school.  I even did well in school.  I can generally figure things out.  A few things, however, utterly and completely mystify me.  One of those Great Mysteries is the price of gas.

You can tell me that it’s just like everything else–that supply and demand dictate prices.  I’ll believe you in a very big picture theoretical sense.  I just won’t “get it”.  

Gas prices are set in a variable-rich environment and that makes the supply and demand indicators a little more difficult than average for guys like me to interpret.  I’m okay with that, but I’m still not convinced that any confluence of events that manages to fly under my radar can provide a rational or logical explanation for what I see with respect to fuel prices.

CNN/Money reports that AAA has noticed two-consecutive days of gas price increases after a streak of more than 80 days that saw prices at the pump falling.  Some think that we may have reached the bottom with respect to gas prices.  

This makes sense to me.  The drop in fuel prices felt way too fast in light of the fact that nothing all that consequential was actually happening in terms of actual supply or our relatively inelastic demand for gasoline.  I can understand a bump as part of a market correction following a too-fast decline in gas prices.

Here’s what I don’t understand.  Why would gas in one part of Missouri bob ten cents per gallon overnight?  AAA noted an increase of less than 1/10 cent per gallon.  What’s happening in the Show-Me state to justify a increase that’s more than 100 times the national trend?

And what in the hell is happening in South Bend, Indiana.  As Notre Dame prepares to play a bowl game in Hawaii, the golden domers are forking over 25 cents per gallon more for fuel than they were a week ago.  And no one seems to have an explanation.

Gather’s frugal living site has commenters who’ve noticed increases of 15 cents per gallon in their areas.  Does this seem normal to you?  Is there some sensible reasons to see such fast and significant fluctuations?

I suppose it’s possible that these seemingly bizarre changes are a perfectly normal part of the fuel market.  We’re all a little more attune to gas price changes during economic times like these, and it could be that I just happen to be paying attention to it this time.

Even if these rapdily-moving prices are normal, however, that doesn’t mean they make any sense.

I refuse to believe that there was any rational reason for gas to plummet from nearly $5 per gallon to a buck and a half in less than three months.  I certainly don’t understand why today’s cheap gas would suddenly be worth a quarter per gallon more for folks in Indiana.  You can explain supply and demand curves to me all day long and you still won’t persuade me that there’s a solid justification for gas to go up a dime overnight on one side of Missouri while the stations in KCMO haven’t budged upwards yet.

I’d like to join in the chorus of people who are making gas price predictions.  It would be fun to feel confident in saying that we’re going to see substantial price spieks this summer or that gas is likely to go up fifteen cents per gallon overnight.  I’d like to feel secure enough in my gas price prognostication skills to tell you that gas is going ot go up to around $3 per gallon.  

I don’t feel that certain, though.

In fact, I don’t have a clue about gas prices.

And I’m beginning to wonder who, if anyone, does.