At face value, it seems almost silly to think that IPOs would offer a quality investment opportunity this year. The market obviously isn’t in its best shape, there’s less money out there to inflate the value of new stock offerings and we’re in what some have termed an “IPO drought”.
In fact, a recent CNN/Money article noted that the “current drought is the second-longest on record, and the number of withdrawn or postponed IPOs increased 62% to 120 in 2008 from 74 deals in 2007, according to data tracker Dealogic.”
So, why would anyone think that this is a good time to hop aboard the IPO train?
There are a few reasons why 2009’s IPOs might work out well for the companies involved and their new investors. We won’t be witnessing massive IPO volume, but the state of the economy and the companies that do go public will team up to create some interesting opportunities.
As strange as it might sound, current economic conditions could actually improve the quality and potential of new publick stock offerings. In headier times, borderline companies might opt to go public in hopes of raising substantial capital in a hurry. Knowing that investors in the current climate aren’t likely to take the kind of risks associated with those offers “thins the herd”. The companies who remain in contention are thus you might vote “most likely to succeed”.
That’s why you can find a little cautious optimism in the recent Renaisance Capital report on 2009 IPOs. The authors of that report (which is available in full here) state:
“Historical precedent suggests that IPOs in periods of low issuance can generate very strong returns as companies are forced to become more realistic with their proposed valuations in order to successfully raise capital, thereby creating opportunities for investors”
Ken Schacter at Red Herring, who remarked that after a bad 2008, the IPO scene for 2009 “can’t be much worse” interpreted the Renaisance report as evidence that companies with “decent fundamentals and realistic prices” could put together credible IPO offers.
That’s a perspective supported by one investment expert quoted in the previously-referenced CNN/Money article. She maintained that the right IPOs could be winners in the current economy:
“There really aren’t very many people on the buy side who have said to us ‘don’t show me any IPOs… But everyone has said ‘I need a good clean company, I need a clean balance sheet, I need visibility, I need good valuation, I need a reason to believe that I’m not taking a silly risk.’”
So, all things considered, it looks like there may be a little room for the right IPOs even in today’s shrinking market. The overall economic circumstances should separate the wheat from the chaff, giving investors who are looking for the right opportunities a chance to buy into new stocks.
The “glory days” of wild IPOs and billions in instant capital might be gone, but the down market won’t freeze out strong young companies with the right stuff. Considering how well many established companies have been faring, some investors might feel a little extra affection for the new blood, too.












